Australia, New Zealand dollars hobbled by surging global ...

Euro follows rouble's example. Forecast for EURUSD for 21.10.2020

Euro follows rouble's example. Forecast for EURUSD for 21.10.2020
The European Commission’s first issuance of bonds as part of common debt and the capital flow to the European markets support EURUSD bulls. Let’s discuss that and make a trading plan.

Fundamental forecast for euro for today

Money controls the world. Everything seems to be against the euro: the second wave of COVID-19 in Europe, the S&P 500’s retracement, the worsening of the eurozone’s economy and the ECB’s hints at monetary policy softening. Nevertheless, the EURUSD jumps up like a scalded cat. If the reason is the Chinese yuan that has reached its 27-month high against the USD, then why aren’t the Australian and the NZ dollars consolidating? Australia’s and New Zealand’s shares in Chinese exports are higher than the eurozone’s one. As it turns out, it’s carry trade that should be blamed for the euro’s rise.
The story that occurred to the Russian rouble is still fresh in our minds: carry trade made it the best Forex performer in 2019. USDRUB’s fall looked paradoxical too. The state of the Russian economy left much to be desired, trade wars slowed down the main partners’ GDP and the Bank of Russia dropped the key rate to stimulate inflation. It’s the latter factor that made non-residents buy out governmental bonds in expectation of a rise in price. A similar story appears to be happening in Europe now.
The European Commission made the first issuance of 10-year and 20-year bonds as part of common debt on 20 October. The sale will finance the EU’s coronavirus-relief programs. The issuance volume amounted to €17 billion, and that’s just a beginning. The fund’s total volume is €750 billion. The mass media once presented those bonds as an alternative to treasuries. That was one of the factors in the EURUSD’s summer rally. I think it’s a mere flow of capital from the USA and developing countries to Europe. Buying EM bonds doesn’t seem to be a good idea amid global GDP’s potential slowdown in Q4. Europe’s periphery is another thing. Greek, Italian and Portuguese bonds look tasty. That lowers their spreads, in comparison with German ones, and points to smaller political risks. Hi, Russia-2019!

Yield spreads in European and German bonds


https://preview.redd.it/3p1xf8ol5gu51.jpg?width=560&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8743f58ef1a5d2ca226c89acc76bf2234c6edb5c
Source: Wall Street Journal.
The more the ECB speaks about softening monetary policy, the more actively non-residents buy out European bonds, hoping for a price rise in the future. Obviously, German bonds have no room for growth, but the periphery still offers some earning opportunities. By the way, EURUSD’s 3-month swap spreads became negative in August. That means the Americans can make profit from both a rise in price in EU bonds and hedging.
The risk of a Blue Wave in the USA aggravates the situation. Joe Biden’s victory and the Democrats’ takeover of the Congress will unblock $4-5 trillion in fiscal aid. That will increase the volumes of Treasuries issuance and drop their price. Investors need an alternative urgently, and they find it in Europe.

Trading plan for EURUSD for today

How long will the euro continue growing, considering the growth isn’t fundamentally backed up? The rouble’s last year example says that everything is possible. The EURUSD’s quotes can be rising up to the ECB’s meeting on 29 October. Then a sale-out may follow. I recommend staying outside the market for a while.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/euro-follow-roubles-example-forecast-for-eurusd-for-21102020/?uid=285861726&cid=62423
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

Money, Money, Money - Its always about the money!


Some economists (but not all economists) believe that the USD and the US economy is losing its integrity and may ultimately collapse.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/dollar-crash-swelling-deficit-deglobalization-stephen-roach-coronavirus-stimulus-recession-2020-6?r=US&IR=T
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-06-14/dollar-crash-how-will-it-unfold
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex-currencies/091416/what-would-it-take-us-dollar-collapse.asp
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/06/upshot/coronavirus-economic-crisis.html
https://www.ft.com/content/d5f05b5c-7db8-11ea-8fdb-7ec06edeef84
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/dollar-crash-swelling-deficit-deglobalization-stephen-roach-coronavirus-stimulus-recession-2020-6-1029312845?op=1
https://medium.com/@baileybarney/will-the-us-dollar-collapse-23e707f19da0

Question: If accurate, what would replace the USD as the global reserve currency?
Answer: The IMF is ready with a replacement global reserve currency called SDR's!

  1. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2019/12/future-of-the-IMF-special-drawing-right-SDR-Ocampo.htm
" In this brave new world, is it time to rethink the SDR’s role?" (Ocampo)"The IMF should not pass up this opportunity" (Ocampo)
  1. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/imf-special-drawing-right-global-currency-by-jose-antonio-ocampo-2019-04?barrier=accesspaylog
3.https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2017/ap24/imf-populism-nationalism-sdr-reserve-currency
4.https://www.imf.org/en/About/Factsheets/Sheets/2016/08/01/14/51/Special-Drawing-Right-SDR
5.https://www.theigc.org/project/the-viability-of-the-special-drawing-rights-as-an-international-reserve-asset/
6.https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.livemint.com/news/india/consensus-remains-elusive-among-g20-countries-on-fresh-sdr-allocation/amp-11595160202040.html
7.https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/43a67e06-bbeb-4bea-8939-bc29ca785b0e
8.https://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/27/business/27imf.html
9.https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/1998/09/24/one-world-one-money
10.https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cityam.com/world-reserve-currencies-is-the-us-dollars-days-numbered/amp/
11.https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2019/09/22/the-dollar-shouldnt-be-the-reserve-currency-but-neither-should-the-renminbi/

Will CBDC's be created at the same time as the SDR's? Will exchange rates of CBDC's be anchored to Quotas? Is the IMF a fund or potentially more like a Central Bank for the World? How did the IMF come about?
Central Bank Digital Coins - CBDC's
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Staff-Discussion-Notes/Issues/2018/11/13/Casting-Light-on-Central-Bank-Digital-Currencies-46233

2.https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2019/05/13/sp051419-stablecoins-central-bank-digital-currencies-and-cross-border-payments
https://www.google.com/amp/s/techwireasia.com/amp/2020/03/central-banks-are-keen-on-digital-currencies-the-imf-is-backing-them/
3.
https://m.economictimes.com/markets/stocks/news/central-banks-wake-up-to-digital-currency-create-new-framework-with-wef/articleshow/73554517.cms
4.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/pawelkuskowski/2020/06/07/central-bank-digital-currencies-cbdc-a-crisis-recovery-tool-for-governments/5.
https://www.weforum.org/press/2020/01/central-banks-waking-up-to-digital-currency-create-new-framework-for-cbdc-deployment-with-world-economic-forum-177ca5d9ee/6.
https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/41243/imf-officials-say-synthetic-cbdc-with-a-public-private-partnership-is-the-better-option7.
https://blockchain.news/insight/private-firms-can-boost-innovation-of-central-bank-digital-currencysays-imf-8.
https://coinidol.com/official-promote-digital-currency/9.
https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/top-imf-official-calls-for-synthetic-central-bank-digital-currencies-cbdc-development/10
  1. England:https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-07-13/bank-of-england-debating-digital-currency-creation-bailey-says
  2. USA:https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbrett/2020/03/23/new-coronavirus-stimulus-bill-introduces-digital-dollar-and-digital-dollar-wallets/amp/
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/fed-digital-dollars-are-part-of-debate-over-coronavirus-stimulus-11585085518
  1. Australiahttps://www.businessinsider.com.au/the-rba-has-been-secretly-working-on-an-all-digital-version-of-the-australian-dollar-but-it-may-not-release-it-to-the-public-at-all-2020-1
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/submissions/payments-system/financial-and-regulatory-technology/
  1. Canadahttps://www.ledgerinsights.com/canada-exploring-consumer-cbdc/
  2. Swedenhttps://www.google.com/amp/s/cointelegraph.com/news/sweden-is-testing-its-new-central-bank-digital-currency/amp
  3. Norwayhttps://www.norges-bank.no/en/news-events/news-publications/News-items/2019/2019-06-27-cbdc/
  4. European Unionhttps://www.google.com/amp/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/dutch-central-bank-wants-european-191627776.html
  5. Singaporehttps://chainbulletin.com/singapore-ready-to-explore-cbdc-together-with-china/amp/
  6. New Zealand:https://investmentnews.co.nz/investment-news/digital-central-bank-money-tipped-for-world-dominance/
  7. Chinahttps://www.ledgerinsights.com/china-central-bank-digital-currency-cbdc-renminbi-dolla

SideNote:

The World Economic Forum is planning a major event for January of 2021 that will focus on the "Great Reset" and the "4th Industrial Revolution".
https://www.weforum.org/great-reset/
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/what-is-the-fourth-industrial-revolution/

Prince Charles wants to reset - Do you?
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jun/03/pandemic-is-chance-to-reset-global-economy-says-prince-charles

What are they gonna reset?

TL:DR
!. Potential collapse of the US dollar.
  1. Replaced by IMF SDR's
3.Complimented by new CBDC's
  1. How is this connection the WEF "Great Reset..
Its time to read, learn and share!

Edit = Added TL:DR
submitted by andrew77mc to conspiracy [link] [comments]

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submitted by GiuliettaShop to Popify [link] [comments]

Worked in finance since out of Uni in the pensions area, want a change of career, not sure what the fuck to do now..

Long story short, been working for 6ish years out of Uni (28 now) in the defined benefit pensions area, was the best offer I got as I did arts (econ/psych) and didn't know what the fuck I was doing. Very dry work, never really hated it per se, but wasn't really passionate about it, but it paid decent (started 30k and now 50-55k) Slowly got more and more bored until it finally got the better of me and the boredom basically made it unbearable.
I quit my job and travelled around for 6 months, tried my hand at equities/options trading. Didn't blow up the account, but pretty much made fuck all above minimum wage from it. Did the whole matched betting for some extra pocket money (after singup bonuses you maybe have a few months befor getting gubbed on things like the horse/2UP bonuses) while I tried to figure out what I really enjoy.
.and the sad thing is..I don't even fucking know. I didn't mind the excitement of trading, but in reality you actually have to sit there for ages not taking anything until your 'edge' appears, its also shit hours because the most liquid market, the US, doesn't close until 9pm here. Fuck forex. I don't really like sell side equities research/not really interested in doing the CFA. I kinda wouldn't mind financial planning because I quite enjoy talking to my parents and family/friends about saving/investing (and not doing all the stupid things I've done) plus it at least has some crossover to my work experience. Things like helping people out if they want ot transfer their pension to Australia or NZ through QROPS.
The frightening thing is outside of the literal basic as fuck things as enjoying TV/movies, some sport, and travelling, I have no idea what I'd enjoy doing for the next 32+ years. I have enough savings to probably try and work it out for another few months while I shovel money into the London rental blackhole. Maybe I should try learning a language, although at Uni I did shit at French.
Somedays I wonder, am I somehow slowly getting depressed? But when I go out and talk to friends and do social things with the GF I feel fine. Thanks for anyone reading this ramble so far. If anyone has any tips on how to do the whole find what you love and enjoy doing' without the eat, pray love travel shit I've tried, please let me know.
TL;DR Worked in pensions, bored as fuck, spent 6 months trying to find out what I enjoy, still no fucking idea other than vaguely talking to people and giving them advice.
submitted by throwawayunsurelife to UKPersonalFinance [link] [comments]

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submitted by granitenchmnt to u/granitenchmnt [link] [comments]

Worked in finance since out of Uni in the pensions area, want a change of career, not sure what the fuck to do now..

Long story short, been working for 6ish years out of Uni (28 now) in the defined benefit pensions area, was the best offer I got. Very dry work, never really hated it per se, but wasn't really passionate about it, but it paid decent (started 30k and now 50-55k) Slowly got more and more bored until it finally got the better of me and the boredom basically made it unbearable.
I quit my job and travelled around for 6 months, tried my hand at equities/options trading. Didn't blow up the account, but pretty much made fuck all above minimum wage from it. Did the whole matched betting for some extra pocket money (after singup bonuses you maybe have a few months befor getting gubbed on things like the horse/2UP bonuses) while I tried to figure out what I really enjoy.
.and the sad thing is..I don't even fucking know. I didn't mind the excitement of trading, but in reality you actually have to sit there for ages not taking anything until your 'edge' appears, its also shit hours because the most liquid market, the US, doesn't close until 9pm here. Fuck forex. I don't really like sell side equities research/not really interested in doing the CFA. I kinda wouldn't mind financial planning because I quite enjoy talking to my parents and family/friends about saving/investing (and not doing all the stupid things I've done) plus it at least has some crossover to my work experience. Things like helping people out if they want ot transfer their pension to Australia or NZ through QROPS.
The frightening thing is outside of the literal basic as fuck things as enjoying TV/movies, some sport, and travelling, I have no idea what I'd enjoy doing for the next 32+ years. I have enough savings to probably try and work it out for another few months while I shovel money into the London rental blackhole. Maybe I should try learning a language, although at Uni I did shit at French.
Somedays I wonder, am I somehow slowly getting depressed? But when I go out and talk to friends and do social things with the GF I feel fine. Thanks for anyone reading this ramble so far. If anyone has any tips on how to do the whole find what you love and enjoy doing' without the eat, pray love travel shit I've tried, please let me know.
TL;DR Worked in pensions, bored as fuck, spent 6 months trying to find out what I enjoy, still no fucking idea other than vaguely talking to people and giving them advice.
submitted by throwawayunsurelife to CasualUK [link] [comments]

Things that make you go hmm. Australia / New Zealand / Rest of world? pricing.

Alright so a local retailer here (NZ) defended their pricing of the RTX series cards by giving out the formula for how they're worked out. Interestingly what it boiled down to is within the US the RRP price has the distributors and retailers margins baked in. However in NZ the NZ distributor effectively imports at US RRP, then does markups from there. Which just doesn't seem right, but, well, we've got the buying power of a gnat. However given our fellow brothers and sisters in Australia aren't happy about it, I thought I'd put a post up in the genuine hope that maybe some others would provide some data and we can either go "hmm that's a little fishy" or "oh, that's just an anomaly, as you were".

So for background, I've never in the past felt pricing of computer parts were off relative to US RRP in NZ except for really weird odd ball items. I've lived in Canada, and moving back to NZ I was really sensitive to "oh, prices in NZ must be terrible" which was actually not true - when you did exchange rate conversions with tax it generally works out pretty close (NZ sticker prices include tax, vs Canada/US prices exclusive of tax)

However something doesn't seem right with the RTX cards. So I went back into the past, when I got a 1080TI and compared some numbers.

May 2017
Forex rate 0.70
Gigabyte Aorus GTX 1080 TI 11G edition.
USD RRP = $759 at the time via PCPartpicker history
I paid $1279 NZD = 1.69x price multiple over US RRP
Now if (at the time) I did a straight US to NZ conversion of US RRP to NZ price + GST it worked out to my retail price in NZD.
$759 / 0.70 * 1.15 = $1246 NZD
Pretty close if you ask me $30 difference. So even if the card came in on a slightly different exchange rate.

You could even argue how quickly after release did you get it? Well according to PC Part Picker there was a spike of about $NZD50-100 just after release depending on the retailer. I got it a month or two later.

So where did that distributor margin, retailed margin, shipping and customs charges come into it? They *must* have been supplied cards at below USD RRP. Which seems pretty logical to me. It's not like our retailers are going to Amazon.com and buying cards.

Fast forward 18 months...

August 2018
Forex rate 0.65
GIGABYTE GV-N208TGAMING OC-11GC
RTX 2080 TI USD RRP = $1249 USD
NZ Retail Price $2499 NZD = 2.0x price multiple over US
Using the usual price conversion
$1249 / 0.65 * 1.15 = $2209 NZD
So a $290 (13%) early adopter tax has crept into the system somewhere.

(OR) if you go by one of the retailers here that $290 comprises distributor margin, retailer margin, portion of shipping (air) and any additional customs fees. Which isn't a lot to go around.

I don't want to give the retailers stick as we do need somewhere to buy our gear, however, that just doesn't seem right.

And just for a kicker, the worst one in NZ is $2999.
ASUS GeForce RTX 2080 Ti ROG Strix OC 11GB
US RRP $1299 -> $2999 NZD (no, I did not mix up any 2's or 9's)
Use the rule of thumb
1299/0.65*1.15 = $2298 NZD
A $701 (30%) early adopter tax

Like I said, things that make you go hmm...
submitted by RowanTheKiwi to nvidia [link] [comments]

3 Major Int'l Flights next year - which credit cards to churn??

Looking at return flights to China, Singapore, and Australia/NZ. Based out of the GVA.
Currently with Krisflyer, but considering jumping ship to Asiana to try get Gold status. Figured one way to accelerate this is to get a useful travel rewards CC that offers points to airmiles conversion.
Been eyeing the SPG cards (not sure if this is wise given the merger with Marriott - also may not necessarily book in any of the hotels under the umbrella). Also been eyeing the AMEX Cobalt...Don't think the Cobalt is eligible for point to star alliance miles conversion tho...
Thoughts, tips?? Gracias!

Ps. Currently own a Scotia Passport Visa Infinite so that will help with 0% FOREX and lounges. I know Scotia has a bunch of Amex cards that could also be useful?

Edit: not looking to accelerate status - more so to maintain or grow status. Just to clarify, looking for cc that will help milk the most out of these trips.
submitted by Mcjingsz to churningcanada [link] [comments]

good advice please, how to transfer money from new zealand to australia

good advice please, how to transfer money from new zealand to australia
Great savings on overseas money transfers OzForex ozforex au personal transfer money OzForex If you transfer money internationally through your bank you could be losing How do you know that your Australian Dollar transfer is secure with OzForex? ‎Travel Card ‎Fees & How you Save ‎FX Products ‎Living Overseas Moving Your Money From New Zealand To Australia movetoaustralia moving money to australia Open an Australian bank account before leaving NZ and get the best exchange rate you can Here's how International money transfers | ANZ anz personal travel international money transfers ANZ International money transfers offer a secure and convenient service that Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ANZ) ABN Sending funds overseas ASB Bank New Zealand https: asb co nz personal sending funds overseas ASB Bank Currency exchange traveller`s cheques foreign currency deposits and travel insurance Find more information on ASB international banking Can I transfer money from my Westpac NZ account to Ask westpac custhelp app answers detail a_id transactions in NZ can't be directly processed to a Westpac Australia account even if the account holder is the same; we recommend transferring money Moving money to Australia from New Zealand Move to movingtoaustralia co nz moving money to Australia from New Ze Moving to Australia and need to move money to Australia from New Zealand? For Foreign Exchange advice and rates visit us now at MovingtoAustralia co nz Sending money to or from overseas | International & Migrant westpac co nz fx sending money to or from overseas Westpac We make it easy for you to send money overseas with telegraphic transfers and bank payments in NZD (New Zealand Dollars) are not accepted by all banks International money transfers Kiwibank https: kiwibank co nz sending international transfers Kiwibank International money transfers make sending money to an overseas account simple and only available to accounts in the UK in GBP Australia in AUD and the United States in USD From outside New Zealand fax to + Money Transfer | Western Union | West *good advice please, how to transfer money from new zealand to australia*
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